POST-PROBABILISTIC UNCERTAINTY QUANTIFICATION: DISCUSSION OF POTENTIAL USE IN PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT RISK MANAGEMENT

DS 84: Proceedings of the DESIGN 2016 14th International Design Conference

Year: 2016
Editor: Marjanovic Dorian, Storga Mario, Pavkovic Neven, Bojcetic Nenad, Skec Stanko
Author: Tegeltija, M.; Oehmen, J.; Kozine, I.; Geraldi, J.
Series: DESIGN
Section: DESIGN METHODS
Page(s): 533-542

Abstract

Uncertainty represents one of the key challenges in product development (PD) projects. Traditionally, risk management quantification methods have been based on probability theory. Those methods showed reliable results for problems dominated by aleatory, i.e. stochastic, uncertainty. To address epistemic uncertainty, i.e. uncertainty that arises from a lack of knowledge, we need to go beyond this traditional approach. Post-probabilistic methods promise improvements. We discuss three possible approaches: Imprecise Probability, the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence and NUSAP Scheme.

Keywords: risk management, post-probabilistic methods, uncertainty

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