The prediction of erratic states in product development

DSM 2012 Proceedings of the 14th International DSM Conference, Kyoto, Japan

Year: 2012
Editor: Onishi, M.; Maurer, M.; Kirner, K.; Lindemann, U.
Author: Khastehdel, M.; Mansour, S.
Series: DSM
Institution: Amir Kabir University of Technology, Iran
Section: Management of Engineering Design Projects
Page(s): 401-410
ISBN: 978-3-446-43354-0

Abstract

This paper presents a model to predict the most likely erratic states in product development under uncertainty. It is assumed there are number of tasks which interrupt the process of product
development and the most likely return on many occasions during the process completion. This results in a delay in completing the task or causing some rework in earlier activities. These tasks decomposed in to a set of sub-tasks forming a series of Design Structure Matrix s in different discrete times through the process completion. This paper utilizes a dynamic model of design structure matrix to display the erratic states through executing tasks. We show how erratic state changes information flow of task in sub-DSM’s and DSM. Through implementing sub-tasks in discretion times the duration of interruptions is kept to estimate the parameters of erratic state probability functions. Finally these probability functions results in predicting erratic states as decreasing development time.

Keywords: Erratic state, design structure matrix, discrete times, uncertainty